The Crisis in Science — and How to Defeat It
Saturday, April 18, 2026 · 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM · Classroom 206
The key goal in our scientific work is to discover the truth. We data scientists (and our algorithms) pore through vast troves of past data to find patterns and relationships that might provide insight for treating similar cases in the future.
Ironically, the more powerful our algorithms and more thorough our exploration, the more likely we will find relationships that are spurious and mistake them for real. This multiple-comparison weakness (amplified by automated search) is not widely understood. Consequently, most published work is false – even articles in the most reputable scientific journals! Their results can’t be replicated when the experiments are performed again.
This is called the “Crisis in Science” and it hampers advancement in every field. Fortunately, a technique I call Target Shuffling solves the technical problem; it corrects for multiple comparisons and much more accurately measures significance – the likelihood that your finding could have arisen by chance alone.
Learn how to Target Shuffle; you’ll add value to any scientific team!
About the Speaker
John Elder
Founder, Elder Research (a MANTECH Company)
30 years ago, Dr. John Elder founded the world’s most experienced data science company, Elder Research. It recently became part of MANTECH, where he is VP and Technical Fellow for Data Science and AI. He has led teams to, for example: detect fraud, find insider threats, discover a drug, time markets, predict needed maintenance, and analyze vast networks. John has co-authored three books – on data mining, text mining, and ensembles – two of which won “book of the year” in Mathematics or Computer Science. He has invented analytic breakthroughs, chairs international conferences, and is a popular keynote speaker, illuminating complex topics with clarity and humor. Dr. Elder is an occasional Adjunct Professor at UVA and was named by President Bush to serve five years on a panel to guide technology for national security.